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How does the Shaq trade affect the Magic?

06/25/09 | by Zach McCann [mail] | Categories: News, Analysis

All year long and in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Orlando Magic gave the Cleveland Cavaliers trouble because of "matchup problems." Of course, "matchup problems" was a fancy way to say the Cavs couldn't guard Dwight Howard.

After Thursday night's blockbuster deal that sent Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland for a bunch of scraps, the Cavs are hoping that matchup problem no longer exists.

On paper, it’s genius. Shaq is 7-1 and weighs significantly more than 300 pounds. Dwight's biggest problems come against big, strong defenders who use their strength to keep Howard away from the rim. The league's premier Dwight stopper, Kendrick Perkins, is listed at 280 pounds (and likely weighs more than that). Yao Ming - another defender who gives Howard a lot of trouble - is known for his unworldly height, but it's his strength that makes him a truly great post defender.

The Cavs are hoping Shaq’s size has the same effect.

Shaq will guard Dwight in the post. He’ll help keep Dwight off the offensive boards. He’ll be a low-post threat to make Dwight work on defense and maybe get him a few cheap fouls. He’ll tire Dwight. He’ll annoy Dwight.

This trade was as much about Dwight Howard as it was Shaquille O’Neal.

If not for Howard and the Magic, the Cavs probably would've might’ve won the NBA title. Instead, the Cavs couldn't stop Orlando's offense because neither Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao or Ben Wallace could slow down Howard, and the Cavs were forced to bring a double-team. When that happened, one of Orlando's sharp-shooters was left open.

With Shaq in the mix, will things be different?

Here are Dwight Howard’s numbers against Shaq (two games since 2007) compared with Dwight’s usual numbers. Keep in mind that Dwight’s numbers against Shaq use an incredibly small sample size, so you can’t base any real conclusions off these numbers. With the Shaq-Dwight situation, there aren’t many numbers at our disposal.

Against Shaq, per 36 minutes: 19.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 61.9 FG%, 12.0 FTA
In East Finals, per 36 minutes: 24.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, 65.0 FG%, 10.5 FTA
This season, per 36 minutes: 20.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, 57.2 FG%, 10.8 FTA

Looking at these numbers, it would seem like the acquisition of Shaq will certainly help the Cavs defend Howard. Like I said, though, this was for from a scientific study - Dwight has only played 69 minutes against Shaq in the last two years.

Furthermore, here’s a look at Howard’s two games against Shaq in the past two seasons:

March 3, 2009: Magic 111, Suns 99
Dwight Howard: 21 points, 8 rebounds, 7-14 FG, 7-13 FT, 5 turnovers, 4 fouls
Shaquille O’Neal: 19 points, 11 rebounds, 9-13 FG, 1-3 FT, 4 turnovers, 4 fouls
What happened: Fresh off his “Master of Panic” comments, Shaq earned ire from the Magic and people around the league because of his attempted flop in the third quarter (shown below). It was a desperate attempt to stop Dwight because little else was working. Howard played 30 minutes in this one, again battling some early foul trouble. But Howard was extremely effective in his time on the floor in a physical matchup. All of Howard’s 21 points came with Shaq on the floor.

Check this out from the AP recap:

“With nearly 600 pounds of All-Stars banging on the inside, bodies were flying. On one play in the third quarter Howard backed down O'Neal, sent him to the floor flopping and dunked over the 325-pounder while O'Neal rolled under Rafer Alston and Matt Barnes, wiping them out like bowling pins.
The back-and-forth jostling wasn't just physical. The two were trash-talking throughout, with each turning up the lip -- and the intensity -- after every dunk.

Howard came out in the third with force, scoring eight points before picking up his fourth foul with 3:36 remaining in the period. O'Neal would return the favor, dunking twice in the period to put the Suns ahead 81-78 at the end of the third.

Howard converted a 3-point play on a foul by O'Neal to tie the score at 88 midway through the fourth, putting the thunder-stick pounding home crowd into a frenzy.”

Nov. 24, 2007: Magic 120, Heat 99
Dwight Howard: 17 points, 13 rebounds, 6-7 FG, 5-10 FT, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls
Shaquille O’Neal: 20 points, 6 rebounds, 8-15 FG, 4-6 FT, 3 turnovers, 4 fouls
What happened: Shaq scored 10 points in the first five minutes, and a bulk of Howard’s points came with Alonzo Mourning on the floor. This game’s difficult to use for reference, though, as Howard’s offensive game wasn’t as developed as it is now and Shaq was almost two years younger.

And oh yeah, for your viewing pleasure.

My take: Throwing out all of the numbers and propaganda, are the Cavs really counting on a 37-year-old to be the team's savior? Is an aged star - known for his mouth as much as his game these days - really going to take this bewildered team and make it an NBA champion? This move reeks of desperation, and while it's certainly going to receive a lot of attention leading up to the season, I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make on the court. Despite a nice bounce-back campaign this past season, Shaq hasn't averaged more than 31 minutes per game since 2004-05, and he'll likely be capped at 25 minutes per game throughout the season. I don't know that he can consistently guard Howard one-on-one, either. That said, I don't blame the Cavs for making the deal. They gave up nothing - absolutely nothing - to get a big expiring contract and a better big man than is currently on their roster. I don't blame the Cavs for making the deal; I just don't know if it will make that much of a difference.

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20 comments, 186 trackbacks

Comment from: Do You Believe In Magic92 [Visitor] · http://myspace.com/its_officially_kilt
what?

The Cavs would have never won the title even if they'd made it past O-town,however,I agree,this move doesnt benefit the Cavs over the Magic much at all.

If anything,it makes them weaker,cause LeBron and Williams's agility and quickness and overall play style is fast pace,and adding Shaq will have the same effect he had on the Suns and the last his last year w/ the Heat....and thats slow them DOWN....

A 37-yr. old washup superstar cant do much against a 23 yr. old superstar...
06/25/09 @ 01:16
Comment from: LA fan [Visitor]
The Lakers would've won the championship even if Cleveland had gotten past Orlando. People complain about Lakers fans being whiners, but when people like you can't even give the Lakers any credit after they've won the championship by belittling their accomplishments with foolish statements such as "If not for Howard and the Magic, the Cavs probably would’ve won the NBA title," can you blame us for complaining? Yeah, maybe the Cavs wouldn've won the championship, but that's a big maybe. People basically crowned the Cavs as champs from the start of the playoffs, and you're still saying they "probably would've won the championship if not for..." after they lost. Seriously?
06/25/09 @ 01:35
Comment from: gtgator [Visitor]
No, LA Fan, people complain about Laker fans being whiners because of what you just did - come onto another team's blog to whine about some perceived slight. Seriously, how pathetic must it be to run around to other team's blogs to "defend" the Lakers because someone had the opinion that a Shaq-LeBron combo would have won?

A champion with class would ignore the naysayers and just enjoy the title, get the SI issue, rewatch the games on DVR, etc. A champion with no class runs around complaining that others do not acknowledge their "greatness". I think you've just established where Laker fans fall.
06/25/09 @ 04:05
Comment from: ken [Visitor]
LA Fan,
"If not for Howard and the Magic, the Cavs probably would’ve won the NBA title,"

"If not for Howard and the Magic, the Cavs might’ve won the NBA title."

The first line is what you thought the blog wrote, but the second line is what was actually written. I didn't get the impression that the blog was trying to slight the Lakers.
06/25/09 @ 08:05
Comment from: Akron [Visitor]
A few things to remember:

1. The Cavs are not done. As commented above, Shaq's 25 minutes of productive basketball is a major improvement than Ben Wallace and Pavlovic's contributions. With the 30th pick in the draft and a full MLE left, expect at least another big (hopefully Varajao, maybe Rasheed) and an athletic, long wing man to be on this team in the fall, as well.

2. Shaq is not the savior, so stop making it look like a desperation move. He is a vast upgrade in the post, and also happens to be a big PR boost to boot. LeBron is the savior and if the did not have to double Dwight on every single play, that series would have been much, much closer.

3. When comparing how Shaq can stop Dwight Howard, don't just focus on Howards production head-to-head. Look at Shaq's stats, too. They're not impressive, but compared to what the Cavs good do previously, it will be a Godsend.

I'm definately biased, but there is a lot to like about this trade.
06/25/09 @ 08:19
Comment from: LA fan [Visitor]
Ken,
The author of this blog most definitely edited the post then, because I directly copied and pasted that quote into my original comment.

Gtgator,
His opinion was not talking about the Cavs with Shaq-LeBron combo, but rather the pre-Shaq Cavs. And, assuming you are an Orlando fan, you guys are the ones who complained about being slighted all throughout the season. I have nothing against the Magic, but if you guys had won, and someone had written "If not for the Lakers, the Nuggets probably would've won the championship," you would be pissed off too.

Otherwise, I think this is a great blog, sorry for any hard feelings!
06/25/09 @ 08:39
Comment from: keith [Visitor] · http://espn.com
No one is relying on shaq for 82 games + the playoffs...this is clearly not Shaq circa 1999-2000. However, the cavs essentially traded two players where 1 had not been in their rotation for most of the year, and the other (ben wallace) since march. The cavs won 66 games without shaq, maybe they won't win 66 this year, but my bet is between 55-63 games.

This trade was also a great deal financially for both teams, the cavs rented Shaq, a big body for a year for 20 million, if it doesn't work they have the flexibility to try to improve in the great free agent class of 2010. The Suns wanted to save 300 billion dollars due to the economy and came close, but they will save a some money with this deal

Lebron likes the move

Oh, and a memo to Dwight Howard...No one can stop you - you might continue your career averaging 20pts 15rebs and 2000 blocked shots a game...however, shaq will make things difficult for you, and as we all saw in the ECF, the cavs could not guard dwight howard one on one...every time (it felt like every play) we sent a double team to dwight, he would make the easy pass to hedo, Lewis, or Peitrus. Good luck next year...


06/25/09 @ 08:40
Comment from: Silvio [Visitor] · http://twitter.com/NBA_Silvio
Cavs improved, not because Shaq is great anymore, but because second-to-none recent contributions by Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. Trade helps Cavs in defending Dwight and gives them good answer to Lakers Bynum/Gasol big combination with equally sized Shaq/Zed. However, it doesn't help them any way in matchups against Celtics.

Bottom line, the biggest losers of this trade is unfortunately Magic. If Orlando wants to see finals again, they'll probably have to beat both revenge hungry Celtics and now better anti-Dwight equipped Cavs.
06/25/09 @ 08:57
Comment from: Zach McCann [Member] Email
NOTE: I edited the sentence about the NBA title because I didn't want that line to steal away the focus of the story. Let's just agree on this - the Cavs were the favorite to win the NBA title before the Magic beat them. Would they have beaten the Lakers? Probably not, but we'll never know.
06/25/09 @ 09:49
Comment from: superman12 [Member] Email
Last time i checked this isn't 2002. The old superman can't stop the real superman.
06/25/09 @ 09:53
Comment from: Steve A [Visitor]
Hey Zach,

I'd like to hear your take on what the Magic need to do in this off season and the 2010 off season.
06/25/09 @ 10:00
Comment from: Mike [Visitor]
What I see from the game numbers is Dwight and Shaq pretty much cancelling each other out. That would be all Cleveland would need -- someone to play Dwight to a standstill, or maybe lose a few points and rebounds to him. Then LeBron and whatever cast of scrubs he's got try to outplay the other four Magic players.

I would still favor the Magic, unless Cleveland gets another stud. Note to Ferry: find some other team to get Ray Allen from Boston cheap, then have them trade him to you for cheap, since Boston isn't likely to trade him directly to the Cavs.
06/25/09 @ 11:12
Comment from: The Other Tim [Visitor]
"This bewildered team?"
You might want to edit that too.
Against the Cavs, the Magic hit 17 threes in a game and won by two. Rafer Alston had a 29 point game. When they stopped playing way above their heads, they were toast. A nice piece of toast for Kobe.
25 minutes of a Shaq who wants more rings than Kobe for Wallace and Sasha? They'll take it.
06/25/09 @ 11:26
Comment from: LA fan [Visitor]
Zach,
Sorry about my original comments, I realize that I overreacted in the heat of the moment. I do appreciate you editing that line though :)

Keep up the great work with this blog!
06/25/09 @ 11:41
Comment from: Billy [Visitor]
The Other Tim: Go back and watch interviews with the Cavs players other than LeBron during that series. They looked pretty bewildered to me. Let's not even talk about Mo and his mouth.

It's way too early to start getting excited or discouraged by this deal. So many teams need to make so many moves. Magic might lose Hedo. Celtics might trade someone (*cough* Rondo *cough*). Houston might trade T-Mac. Portland has a lot of things it can do to get a legit PG or wing player to complement Brandon Roy.

A lot of players should make a lot of adjustments. Dwight might turn into a 25/15 guy with a summer dedicated to working on his game instead of being the defense and rebound boy for Team USA. Ginobli might be healthy. Kobe might start showing some wear and tear finally. Who knows. Trying to throw out favorites for next year before the free agency period has even started is silly though.
06/25/09 @ 14:06
Comment from: Sam [Visitor]
Billy: what did you expect Mo to say? "I think we're gong to lose the series?" he takes so much heat for that when in fact the media backed hm into a corner.
06/25/09 @ 23:04
Comment from: kj [Visitor]
hey magic fans, you won the series by a total of 15 points. you shot the ball from 3 point-land better than your seasons average and howard shot WELL above his season average from the FT line. when both of those things returned to "normal," the magic lost rather handily to the lakers.

in light of all this, the frontin' done by the blogpost author is almost funny. did the cavs have match-up problems with the magic? yup. no question about it. and *still* the magic had to have TWO things go 'fluke' for them to win the series with a 2.5 points average margin of victory.
06/26/09 @ 14:36
Comment from: jason [Visitor]
I hve agree I mean not only the media but other critics and fans as well, I mean the critic that had orlando winning was sir charles.
06/27/09 @ 07:30
Comment from: J the Drafter [Visitor]
Our biggest problem the whole post-season was Rafer Alston's streaky shooting and occasional bad play. When He's clicking, everything's going well. When he's not...let's just say that Jameer's loss hurt.
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When money is taken freedom is forsaken.
01/03/10 @ 15:59
Trackback from: Zurich Switzerland [Visitor]
It is not work that kills but worry.
01/03/10 @ 16:01
Trackback from: Bern Switzerland [Visitor]
The greater the sinner the greater the saint.
01/03/10 @ 16:03
Trackback from: Swiss Alps [Visitor]
A stumble may prevent a fall.
01/03/10 @ 16:04
The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names.
01/03/10 @ 16:06
The best mirror is an old friend.
01/03/10 @ 16:08
Trackback from: Swiss Vacation [Visitor]
Might is right.
01/03/10 @ 16:09
Measure three times before you cut once.
01/03/10 @ 16:11
A lowclass man will just talk deeds are the hallmark of a gentleman. Knappert p. 84 Swahili
01/03/10 @ 16:13
Trackback from: Skiing Switzerland [Visitor]
Peace lasts till the army comes and the army lasts till peace comes.
01/03/10 @ 16:14
The miser and the openhanded spend the same in the long run.
01/03/10 @ 16:16
The pot calls the kettle black.
01/03/10 @ 16:18
Trackback from: Switzerland Tour [Visitor]
Its for her own good that the cat purrs.
01/03/10 @ 16:19
Trackback from: Swiss Tour [Visitor]
If the doctor cures the sun sees it if he kills the earth hides it.
01/03/10 @ 16:20
Time flies.
01/03/10 @ 16:22
Trackback from: Switzerland Tourism [Visitor]
Never spend your money before you have it
01/03/10 @ 16:23
Trackback from: Zurich Switzerland [Visitor]
Firelight will not let you read fine stories but its warm and you wont see the dust on the floor.
01/03/10 @ 16:25
Trackback from: Bern Switzerland [Visitor]
The climber of ladders will descend [the ambitious person will be brought back down]. Knappert p. 93 Swahili
01/03/10 @ 16:26
Trackback from: Luzern Switzerland [Visitor]
Circumstances alter cases.
01/03/10 @ 16:28
Trackback from: Swiss Alps [Visitor]
Wait until it is night before saying that is has been a fine day.
01/03/10 @ 16:30
A small family is soon provided for.
01/03/10 @ 16:31
Epigrams succeed where epics fail.
01/03/10 @ 16:33
The pitcher will go to the well once too often.
01/03/10 @ 16:36
Want is the mother of industry.
01/03/10 @ 16:39
Trackback from: Skiing Switzerland [Visitor]
The best things in life are free.
01/03/10 @ 16:41
Constant dropping wears away a stone.
01/03/10 @ 16:42
Life is half spent before one knows what life is.
01/03/10 @ 16:44
Trackback from: Switzerland Tour [Visitor]
Goodness speaks in a whisper evil shouts
01/03/10 @ 16:46
Trackback from: Swiss Tour [Visitor]
A heart in love with beauty never grows old.
01/03/10 @ 16:49
Dont throw the baby out with the bathwater.
01/03/10 @ 16:51
Trackback from: Switzerland Tourism [Visitor]
Fingers were made before forks.
01/03/10 @ 16:52
Trackback from: Swiss Alps [Visitor]
The right man comes at the right time.
01/03/10 @ 16:54
Trackback from: Alps Vacations [Visitor]
Many a friend was lost through a joke but none was ever gained so.
01/03/10 @ 16:55
As a tree falls so shall it lie.
01/03/10 @ 16:57
One man’s meat is another man’s poison.
01/03/10 @ 16:59
He that eats till he is sick must fast till he is well.
01/03/10 @ 17:00
Trackback from: Skiing Switzerland [Visitor]
When a heart is on fire sparks always fly out of the mouth.
01/03/10 @ 17:02
A handstaff of holly a buailtin of hazela single sheaf and a clean floor.
01/03/10 @ 17:04
Evil doers are evil dreaders.
01/03/10 @ 17:06
Trackback from: Switzerland Tour [Visitor]
If we do not change our direction we are likely to end up where we are headed.
01/03/10 @ 17:07
Trackback from: Swiss Tour [Visitor]
If you speak the truth have a foot in the stirrup.
01/03/10 @ 17:09
Time spent laughing is time spent with the Gods.
01/03/10 @ 17:10
Trackback from: Switzerland Tourism [Visitor]
Better die with honor than live with shame.
01/03/10 @ 17:12
Trackback from: Swiss Alps [Visitor]
Dirty water will quench fire.
01/03/10 @ 17:13
Trackback from: Alps Vacations [Visitor]
Nature surpasses nurture.
01/03/10 @ 17:15
No one was ever lost on a straight road.
01/03/10 @ 17:17
Once a word leaves your mouth you cannot chase it back even with the swiftest horse.
01/06/10 @ 16:12
Trackback from: Love Walkthrough [Visitor]
Thrift is a great revenue.
01/07/10 @ 18:40
Still waters run deep.
01/09/10 @ 15:42
Its good to be clever but not to show it.
01/09/10 @ 16:29
Trackback from: Zenerez [Visitor]
It is better to be born lucky than rich.
01/16/10 @ 22:59
Devil take the hindmost.
01/22/10 @ 05:26
Trackback from: Essentials of Forex [Visitor]
A rolling stone gathers no moss.
01/22/10 @ 05:27
Trackback from: Forex Analysis [Visitor]
Worry gives a small thing a big shadow.
01/22/10 @ 05:28
Trackback from: Forex Body System [Visitor]
The devil takes a hand in what is done in haste.
01/22/10 @ 05:29
Trackback from: Forex Essentials [Visitor]
Opportunity never knocks twice at any man’s door.
01/22/10 @ 05:30
The man who gives little with a smile gives more than the man who gives much with a frown.
01/22/10 @ 05:35
Trackback from: Forex Patterns [Visitor]
The better the day the better the deed.
01/22/10 @ 05:37
Trackback from: Forex Profit Hunter [Visitor]
A small debt makes a man your debtor a large one your enemy.
01/22/10 @ 05:38
Trackback from: Forex Revolution [Visitor]
Power lasts ten years influence not more than a hundred.
01/22/10 @ 05:39
Trackback from: Forex Roboteer [Visitor]
Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead.
01/22/10 @ 05:41
An empty purse and a new house make a man wise but too late.
01/22/10 @ 05:42
Trackback from: Forex - Fibonacci [Visitor]
An army of deer would be more formidable commanded by a lion than a an army of lions commanded by a stag.
01/22/10 @ 05:43
Great souls have wills feeble ones have only wishes.
01/22/10 @ 05:45
Luck seeks those who flee and flees those who seek it.
01/22/10 @ 05:46

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