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Three Thoughts after Magic's 91-86 Win over Pistons

01/31/10 | by Philip Rossman-Reich [mail] | Categories: Analysis

Gut Check Time
One thing that has always impressed me about the Magic the past two seasons has been their ability to win games statistics show they have no business in winning. It takes a little bit of luck, and a lot a bit of skill.

At times, that my have been missing this season. Orlando has done a good job weathering the storm, but the January swoon has been disheartening because this quality was missing.

Tonight's game in Detroit was a gut check though and Orlando passed with low-flying colors in pulling out a win the team needed to maintain its confidence.

The Pistons had several good chances to take the lead or tie the game in the closing seconds. Richard Hamilton missed a mid-range jumper and after two Rashard Lewis free throws, Lewis blanketed Ben Gordon and prevented him from getting off a game-tying three, forcing a turnover to secure the win.

Argue all you want that the Magic should not have blown a 15-point first-half lead against a 15-31 team. It is a very good one. But as former Magic coach Chuck Daly used to always say, "There are no such things as ugly wins." I am sure Eastern Conference All Star coach Stan Van Gundy ascribes to that feeling. They all count the same and Orlando gutted one out tonight.

The Magic struggled offensively, shooting a not-quite-so-horrible 46.9 percent from the floor and committing 14 turnovers. For the first time in a while, Dwight Howard struggled his way to 16 points while shooting eight of 18 from the line. A good effort from Howard, but not the interstellar performances the Magic have gotten recently.

Detroit outrebounded Orlando 43-38 behind 12 offensive rebounds and nine rebounds apiece from Tayshaun Prince, Jonas Jerebko and Ben Wallace. In addition to that, the speedy point guards continued to give Orlando's defense problems as Rodney Stuckey led all scorers with 18 points -- albeit on 4-of-11 shooting. This helped keep the Pistons in the game and give them a very good chance of winning at the end.

How did Orlando counter this?

The Magic played decently suffocating defense, giving up 39.2 percent shooting and hitting 10 of 22 free throws. Howard had five blocked shots too.

As Orlando's history has shown, any win in Detroit is a good one. The Magic have won just one of their last nine regular season trips to The Palace of Auburn Hills. We do not need to go into the playoff futility in Detroit.

It did not have to be pretty tonight, but Orlando did what it needed to do and (hopefully) learned what it needed for the next game.

Follow up:

Injuries Testing Magic's Depth... Again
Jameer Nelson went down in the first quarter with a hyperextended knee. Mickael Pietrus sprained his ankle after landing on a player's foot in the fourth quarter.

So far, this has been the season of injuries and it looks like the hits keep on coming.

Nelson scored five points in about 10.5 minutes and Pietrus had 14 points and hit four of his five 3-point attempts in nearly 23 minutes before going down. Both Nelson and Pietrus have had their ups and downs statistically this season, but I think most of us can agree that Orlando is a much better team when they play.

Anthony Johnson, playing his first game since the 100-84 win over the Kings on Jan. 22 and playing more than 10 minutes for the first time since a 104-99 win over the Jazz on Dec. 21, scored six points and had three assists and no turnovers in about 21 minutes of play. Not bad for a guy who one could definitely believe is rusty.

The more important thing is that there is no doubt that Johnson would be ready and able to be inserted immediately into the lineup when his number was called.

The same thing can be said for Pietrus' injury. Matt Barnes has been fairly solid in the starting lineup since mid-December as Pietrus has moved back to the bench. JJ Redick has stepped up and played the best season of his career.

Orlando weathered the first storm of injuries, now it looks like the team will have to get through another one. Vince Carter will need to be better -- he again struggled scoring two points on 1-of-8 shooting -- for the Magic to keep the division lead this time.

John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com reports Pietrus was still pretty sore after the game and is likely out Tuesday against Milwaukee and Nelson, who has been dealing with soreness and swelling in his knee since returning from surgery on his left knee, is questionable.

Redick Stepping Up
Much of the debate right now with the Magic is whether Stan Van Gundy should insert JJ Redick into the starting lineup ahead of Vince Carter. Whether that argument has merit or not will continue to be debated until/if Vince Carter gets out of his shooting funk.

But Redick made his case for his value to the team once again tonight.

Redick drew a 3-point foul on Richard Hamilton late in the game to give Orlando the lead and sank all three free throws. He is starting to get the nod at the end of games (when who is in the game matters even more) over Carter. And Redick is fulfilling whatever promise anyone thought he could have when Orlando drafted him.

JJ scored 17 points on an inefficient 5-of-11 shooting (2 of 6 from beyond the arc). This a night after Redick scored eight points and dished out a career-high seven assists against the Hawks.

Redick is still something of a mystery. He did not shoot fantastic tonight or Saturday against Atlanta. But he is shooting 47 percent from the floor, 43.5 percent from beyond the arc and scoring 11.2 points per game in his last five games. He is averaging career highs in points (9.7) and 3-point field goal percentage (40.9%). Now that also comes with more minutes as Van Gundy has trusted Redick more this season than at any time before in his career.

But the groundswell support for Redick and his play on the court certainly show that Redick has been a very pleasant surprise this year for Orlando.

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19 comments, 261 trackbacks

Comment from: Cody [Visitor]
There's no question Redick should be starting with the way he's playing and with the way Carter is injured/slowed/hobbled. It's science.

We're finally rounding into last seasons form record wise and tough-n-grit wise, so that's a good sign. As long as we keep feeding it into Howard before we attempt to do anything else we will be ok, regardless of who fills in around him. I still would like to see more PT for Bass though, especially when the match ups so blatently favor him in at the 4. As a matter of fact, I think a line up of Howard, Bass, Lewis, Redick, and (name your point guard) could do us some good from time to time in game.
02/01/10 @ 07:22
Comment from: D-Rod [Visitor]
Bass needs minutes no doubt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
02/01/10 @ 08:11
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
I'll take white chocolate with that starting lineup cody.
02/01/10 @ 15:02
Comment from: Let AJ Play [Visitor]
**"Both Nelson and Pietrus have had their ups and downs statistically this season, but I think most of us can agree that Orlando is a much better team when they play."**

Really? The team is something like 15-4 without Jameer. I'll take a rotation of JWill and AJ at the PG spot.
02/01/10 @ 15:53
Comment from: To Redick Lovers [Visitor]
If you think JJ should start, take over VC minutes, give me proof??? Cause honestly even with VC playing like this he still makes the magic better.

Last game against Detroit

VC +2
Redick +3

What does that stat show? VC had arguably one of his worst games 1/8 only 2 points. While JJ had a great game and still thats the difference. Infact funny thing is VC had a +4 rating most of the game until the last few free throws and Redick finally had a better rating than carter.

So VC's worst = JJ best lol thats what people dont get. What else does JJ do beside score, does he rebound? does he make assist? Even defensibely he's an undersized 6'4 shooting guard. I know you see him running around on D but still most guys are taller athletic than him so if they dont shoot over him, they get rebounds lead guys open. I have seen countless games where when VC goes to the bench, orlando loses its leads or games gets close. Its facts, its stats!!

Honestly this team is going no where without VC. He has a + rating every game so i dont get why people say bench him, he's not making the team worse. More importantly you want him to get his confidence, be the old VC just freaking let him play one game. Last time he played 40 mins he score 21 point going 8/16. Just let him shoot, make plays for him and play him lots of mins and he will get out of the funk.

As far as Nelson, i dont think he fits this team. He's too shoot first pg, and when you have a Howard/VC/Lewis you shouldn't look for your own shots but rather make plays for those guys. He could easily rack up 7-10 assists if he starts becoming more of a playmaker.
02/02/10 @ 06:52
Comment from: To VC Lover [Visitor]
VC averaging career lows in: ppg, reb, assists, stls, blks, and fg%. Lowest 3pt% since his rookie year. "It's facts, it's stats."

Use the eyeball test...Redick is clearly the better player RIGHT NOW. Whatever he lacks in rebounding, passing, or defense is insignificant and ultimately irrelevant because we don't need those to be his strong suits. We need him to shoot well, and he is doing that better than VC WITHOUT QUESTION.

What's Vince doing right? Not much, but he is shooting a career HIGH in ft%. Take the damn ball to the hole and play to your strength! If he is unwilling or unable to do so, he will continue to struggle.

As for the plus/minus thing...really? 9 other players on the floor can influence that stat while you're in the game. Examples: Dwight tears it up for a quarter with JJ in...JJ's plus/minus looks great because of Dwight. Kobe/Lebron/whoever goes off on Barnes while VC's in...VC's plus/minus looks bad. And so on and so forth...what a meaningless statistic! For us, the only plus/minuses I'd be worried about are Dwight's and LINEUPS of players, not any other individual.
02/02/10 @ 10:01
Comment from: To VC Haters [Visitor]
Oh Come on!!!, every player knows how capable VC is when he takes over games, theres no doubt the opposing team focus is on Vince when his playing and they aware that he is limited due to his injurys. I can see VC's current role is primary for learning experience but not only for him but also for his teamates. so far hes being a decoy to opponents to concetrate on him.

>it still mid-season so there's room for improvement for the Magic, and when Vince recover from his injurys and the Team ready for the playoff thats when this team will show how dangerous they are.
02/02/10 @ 14:00
Comment from: robert mabry [Visitor]
yeah redick haters out there.. yall are just absolutely stupid... just remember.. redick goes out and gets the assignment to guard generally the best shooter on the opposing team every night.. nine times out of ten shuts them down.. and as for what ever your name is.. i do believe an 8 point 7 assist game is quite amazing if you ask me... you got problems with jj then look up what he did at duke.. i guarantee you in due time he will be doing the same thing at orlando before long
02/02/10 @ 17:27
Comment from: Robert Mabry [Visitor]
now to me is what they ought to do is sit matt barnes.. firstly he is completely sucking right now.. and put redick in for him.. now it does make their lineup a lil smaller but not at an offensive standpoint.. they can not double team anybody.. you got jameer nelson... vince carter.. redick.. and lewis who are all four deadly from outside.. and then howard down to dominate the paint.. tell me you can think of a better linup then that in the nba...
02/02/10 @ 17:32
Comment from: To Robert Maby [Visitor]
Dude next time make a better argument please. So just cause one game he goes all out and gets 7 assists he's a complete player to you? lol he avg. 1.7 reb , 1.9 assists go look it up are those good? JJ is pure shooter, its great when orlando needs offense but you need more than that. Also, show me the so called 9 out of 10 times he shuts down people cause i dont see it. He runs around and tries to get in people faces, but JJ is small and he's not that athletic so he cant possibly keep up with guys. I've seen alot of games against good teams that when VC goes out and JJ comes in the lead shrinks alot.

You're clearly a Redick lover, do you realize there is a big difference between college and pro? JJ will never be like the old Duke days cause the NBA has bigger, more physical more athletic players.

I dont suggest a VC and JJ lineup cuz magic are very small there. I rem when they played the bobcats you had Jackson and Wallace and magic couldnt keep up, as soon as JJ went out and barnes came in, magic started playing better D.

JJ is good of the bench, should play 15-20 mins per game. If he's going, play him in crunch time with VC unless you're playing against bigger players.
02/02/10 @ 18:22
Comment from: +/- GOOD STAT [Visitor]
How is +/- not a good stat? It shows clearly if having a player on the court is at advantage or not. If you want to get technical look at it from game to game average it out, its a great stat. Yes 9 other players can influence but at the same time one player can make a big difference. If a guy is always a + when he's on the court how can you say he's not helping the team? It doesnt matter if someone else is dominating whose doing what fact is with Vince in that means magic are a better team as oppose to not playing that was my argument. There is so much more that goes into nba games. Yes he's struggling but teams still have to pay alot of attention to him which leaves guys like howard and lewis more open.

Also, no its more than just shooting. If he's gonna take over VC he should rebound make assist play good D. At the end of the day throughtout this struggle, VC was still rebounding, assisting and his D has been good for last few games so with your logic Sub Redick shooting for everything else carter was doing.

At the end of the day, there is no argument VC is a much better player than JJ. You just have to give him time thats why i keep saying let him play and be patient cause injury did effect him. I think the only thing effecting VC now is confidence and you can't get that back until the coach makes more plays and plays you more mins.
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