So... that was an interesting evening. I spent a little more than an hour writing a post explaining how Los Angeles' acquisition of Chris Paul actually made it less likely they would -- or rather be able to -- make a move to try and acquire Dwight Howard. In a sense Orlando was giving up the (slim) opportunity to acquire Chris Paul in exchange for the security that the big fish -- some would say the biggest fish -- would get taken out of the pond, so to speak.
Yeah, that is all thrown out the window. The Magic should expect another call about Dwight Howard yesterday and will likely say no, as they have apparently done to this point. Orlando is not interested in trading Dwight Howard without exploring the opportunity to bring in a star player first.
I have gone over in the last two days the situation Orlando is in trying to get one of these star players in a Magic uniform. In the first part, I went over the need to bring in a star player and, in the second part, I went over the difficulty in assembling a package to bring in one of these star players. Obviously, everyone has focused on acquiring Chris Paul. But the point remains the same no matter who Orlando is acquiring, Orlando likely needs a third team willing to take on some of the burden and some help to make a deal work.
Even then it might have been turned down by the other team. Or worse, the league itself. Gulp.
It is difficult. So to illustrate the quandary, let's insert the Magic into that proposed Lakers-Hornets-Rockets deal.
This trade does not work. The Magic do not have the kind of salary to make this deal work. Pau Gasol was valuable in that way.
And now things get even more complicated for Orlando with the report from Chris Broussard that Howard is preparing to request the Magic deal him to the Nets, possibly as soon as today. It appears Otis Smith is running out of time to acquire one of the players Dwight Howard wants added to the team -- which included Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Andre Iguodala, Monta Ellis and Josh Smith according Bill Ingram of HoopsWorld.
It will be very difficult to assemble a package that will keep the Magic competitive while also netting a star player.
Let's take a look at the deals readers have suggested.
This trio is from Adam Shrigley (@shrig021):
I think you can see the disadvantage the Magic are at. The third team in all three of these deals are not getting back a star player while giving one up. Sure, they get some nice young pieces like J.J. Redick and Ryan Anderson. Ultimately all three deals come down to a team believing that Hedo Turkoglu (or Trevor Ariza) is a critical piece to their future. That could be a difficult find.
And, as you can see from the trio of deals, the Magic are giving up the most as expected to bring in big name players. They also have to take on some salary which does not help things either.
This trade works and might actually satisfy needs both teams need. I would hope this is a deal that is explored. But, it all depends on the Warriors desire to take on Turkoglu. They might be more willing to do it if Orlando takes Ellis and Biedrins off their hands. Maybe this is our last ditch effort.
The point of all this in the wake of Chris Paul's nixed trade and Dwight Howard's rumored trade request is to show how difficult it is to put together an attractive package for a trade for one of these stars. In every single one of these deals, the trade turns on how much value other teams place in Hedo Turkogly. That is not a good situation to be.
If the Magic cannot find a way to make a deal like the ones above to work, I think we have to explore the next inevitability. The one all Magic fans have been fearing for some time and appears to be coming true...
@shrig021 you're the coolest, like really though you are!
@OMagicDaily have to make new trades without Brandon Bass involved
Ok there is one huge thing I am somehow missing in all of these Dwight Howard trade rumors and such. Why do the Magic have to trade for someone to join Dwight now, when we clearly don't have great trade pieces?? Or, why would the Magic ever want to trade Dwight now, and why would Dwight ever want to be traded right now?? The emphasis on "now."
Dwight demanding a trade to New Jersey makes no sense, because New Jersey would have to gut their roster to get him. If Dwight really wants to join New Jersey, he can go to New Jersey next year when he is a free agent, and they will NOT have to gut their team. Hence he would be joining a better team for the same or more money.
With that logic however, why would he not choose to stay in Orlando and convince D.Williams to join the Magic? Deron has no commitment to the Nets, he played there for half a season. Orlando has just as nice if not nicer arena than the Nets will have, Orlando has ownership willing to spend money & committed to winning rings, BUT the Magic also have no state taxes, warmer weather, and A BETTER TEAM. If Dwight & Deron decide to sign with Orlando next year, Gilbert will for sure be amnestied by that point, and we will have the ability to sign both of them, and we will not have to completely gut our roster to do so. We would become championship caliber immediately. If someone argues that D.Williams will not be a free agent at the end of this year, that is absolutely wrong (unless Otis trades Dwight). New Jersey will not be able to sign another superstar, and so D.Williams absolutely will not sign an extension this year.
I just don't understand why there is ZERO talk about keeping Dwight this whole season, and THEN acquiring a top free agent NEXT YEAR. I know it is risky because Dwight could leave for nothing, but why can't Otis sit down with Dwight & convince him of this. "Dwight, will you stay if we sign D. Williams over the summer? Will you try to convince him to come here? If we do this, you will have a much better situation & be closer to winning a championship than you would in New Jersey."
And if anyone thinks this idea is ridiculous, this is very similar to what Wade did. He became a free agent, but then re-signed with his own team and convinced a great player to come join him (ok 2 great players in his case, but you get the point).
Does anyone have any reasons why this does not make sense? Maybe I am missing something.
There's something to be said for the D-Wade approach, however, between the fall of 2009 and the present, two things have changed the culture in the NBA: The Decision and Melo-Drama. The Magic would really like to avoid the media storm that comes with this type of news/rumor story. It can become a detriment to the team environment (Exhibit A: Denver 2010-Feb. 2011). Also, when you say "risky," I think you mean, "REALLY FREAKING RISKY." Look at the depressing mess that is Cleveland and Toronto. I mean, can you imagine a lineup of Nelson, JJ, Turkoglu, Big Baby, and (maybe) Kyle Orton? "Yikes," would be an understatement because that is a 27-55 team. Listen, if Otis and Dwight were somehow able to come to the understanding that you mentioned, (and I think that approach will be or has been tried at some point), that would be great but I am really starting to believe that Dwight wants a bigger market, and is playing the same game Melo played. I know these are rumors, but I just don't believe there's no fire with this much smoke. @Magician1378
@JordanEvans I agree with you that this is more than just smoke now. I don't think my scenario is going to happen. But I still don't understand why. The only appeal the Nets would have over Orlando is a larger market, potentially. But how big of a market are the Nets realistically going to have with such a predominant Knick culture around the area? I don't think the Nets are suddenly going to take half the NY market, or even a third of it. I think it could easily become a Lakers/Clippers situation. And as I mentioned, the Nets still won't be very good with just Deron & Dwight, assuming they have to give up players to get Dwight.
Anyways, I still don't understand the Big Baby trade. Bass is better offensively, a harder worker, not out of shape, and hasn't had any direct confrontations with coaches. If Baby got into it with Doc, how is he going to handle Van Gundy? Plus, now we are spending a lot more money and have a contract that lasts a lot longer than we had with Bass. Stupid move in my opinion. It is a desperate attempt to keep Dwight because he is better friends with Davis I guess? And let's be serious here, Dwight is absolutely not going to stay in Orlando because we acquired friggin' Glen Big Baby Davis. I'm sorry, I just absolutely hate the trade. I lost all respect for Otis today. I wish he would have tried a sign and trade for David West at least. Seems like the Celtics are giving up nothing to get him. We could have thrown our Louisiana boy Bass into that trade. Now the Celtics have 2 great starting PFs. Sorry, I am rambling out of immense frustration. I'll stop now.